When will China have a black president?

There is hardly any Africans in China. I believe almost all of them are in Guangzhou and there’s probably less than 100,000 even there. Meaning if everyone had an equal chance of becoming president, then the chance an African would become president in China is about 0.00715%.

To give you an idea of how unlikely this is, let’s say each election is completely fair. If you have a fair dice, and you roll it once, the chance you’d land a 6 is of course 1/6. But if you roll it many times, the chance you’d roll a six at least once goes up the more times you roll it.

So how many random elections would it take to get that percentage above 50%?

9695. After 9695 elections, assuming each election is 100% fair to everyone in China, the chances one could become president in at least one of those elections would be 50%.

Each presidential term is 5 years long.

That means this would take 48,475 years.

Basically, the chances are impossible.